OceanMet provides
customized weather forecasts tailored to your individual needs. Maps show a
projection of your boat position, along with the pressure and wind field.
To-the-point text describes the weather, wind, and sea conditions that will
affect you. Satellite pictures and satellite-derived winds can be included—it’s
all up to you. Each graphic is cropped and manipulated to reduce the overall
file size to the minimum, saving on communication charges (contact me for samples).
Course changes are recommended to avoid bad weather or take advantage of better
weather. And I provide the necessary weather information to help solve
logistical problems—whether it’s selecting a stopover port, managing equipment
problems, or picking the best shopping day for your clients.
My goal is to make your trip safer, more efficient, and more enjoyable. You
have enough to do without worrying about the weather.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is a weather forecast created?
OceanMet’s approach to
weather forecasting centers on a full commitment to the crew, boat and project.
Custom forecasts, created by an experienced forecaster with 32 years of
real-world experience, are specifically tailored for your needs.
The challenge faced by all weather
routers is the same: a lack of atmospheric observations reported in vast ocean
regions—and limitations of weather satellites—results in gaps of information that
can skew a computer model forecast.
When I prepare
a forecast, I first cross-check the starting point of the forecast by comparing
it to whatever evidence I have to help me verify the accuracy of the data. This
is why information from clients is critical, since it gives me an up-to-date
reading of the actual conditions near the boat. If that input is significantly
different from what the computer model has, I must be suspicious of the model’s
accuracy and adjust my forecast accordingly.
After
checking the accuracy of the starting period of the forecast, I compare the
previous model’s solution for the current time period. If the previous model
run handled the situation well, and the current model run depicts the system
accurately, I have good confidence in the subsequent hours of the model
forecast. If not, I have to use my training and experience to anticipate
how things may differ from the model run. Along with my forecast, I convey my
relative confidence level to the crew, so they are forewarned about possible
forecast errors.
In general, how much advance notice of weather patterns can you give the
crew?
I feel
confident in the first 72-hours of my forecast and fairly confident for day
four and five. Confidence starts to wane beyond five days, but some general
plans may be made out to 10 days. The key is to recognize when the data are suspect,
and in which way they are likely to vary. I also evaluate products that
simulate variations in the weather data, giving me a feel for the relative
reliability of the long-range data. With that information, we can plan a course
that minimizes the impact of deviations in the long-term weather.
Can't
the crew get weather information from faxed weather transmissions, GRIB files,
or internet sites?
Sophisticated
communications systems make it possible for the crew to have a considerable
amount of weather data onboard, so you might wonder why they need a weather
router. I think the primary reasons are time and experience. By shifting the
weather load to a shore-based meteorologist, the crew saves valuable time
needed to concentrate on the never-ending challenges of racing or cruising. And
by choosing an experienced meteorologist, the crew has someone who can evaluate
the accuracy of the data and focus entirely on the problem of weather. The crew
is quite capable of interpreting weather data, but I can do it more
efficiently, in more detail and more accurately.
How
do you use data from weather satellites? Aren’t there gaps in the
coverage over some areas of the world?
It
is true that the geostationary weather satellites (in a steady orbit over the
Equator) do not handle the poles well. The instruments look at the poles from
an oblique angle, causing errors in the temperature scans (registering as too
warm because it samples so much intervening atmosphere) and errors in the
representation of breaks in the cloud cover (it fills in holes between cloud
areas). But some weather satellites revolve around the Earth from pole-to-pole,
so data over and near the poles are available. I use a variety of sources for
satellite data, depending on the area of concern and the type of data needed.
Cloud patterns suggest the strength and character of a weather system, and I
use the satellite photos as an important piece of the forecast puzzle. The
atmosphere is in constant fluid motion, so one of the best tools is a loop of
satellite photos. The loop gives me a feel for the relationships between
weather systems, their movement, and changes in strength. In most cases, I have
a source that provides the loop, but sometimes I gather individual photos and
place them in a graphics program to create my own loop.
Is routing software useful?
A
routing program is computer software that integrates weather forecast data
(GRIB) with a boat’s performance characteristics and produces a preferred
course to sail. The number of routing programs has blossomed and their
quality has improved. I check routing
software options only after I have produced my own forecast and course
selection—as another tool to check my work and ensure that I have not missed
something—whereas I think many crewmembers will download the weather file, activate
the routing module and assume that it is correct. And I understand why, since
they don’t have the time to spend pouring over endless weather data—with half a
dozen programs open—to generate a weather forecast! But the forecast model has limitations that
increase with time, so relying only on routing software is not ideal.
How
do you transmit your information to a client?
Reliable
communications to and from a boat is an absolutely critical link, since I must
know where they are and where they are going to properly perform my duties. I
also rely on data from the boat (such as course heading; boat speed; wind
direction and wind speed) to help me evaluate the accuracy of computer-based
weather models and to track the progress of weather systems. For instance, if
the wind is from a direction that differs from what I expected, that may give
me a clue as to whether the weather system is strengthening or weakening, or
moving faster or slower than I expected.
Do you control the course of the
boat?
My
primary objective is to keep the crew safe and the boat fast. I evaluate
meteorological data from many sources (multiple computer models; ship and buoy
reports; satellite-based wind estimates; satellite cloud analyses; wave height
forecasts, etc.), then consider the boat’s performance characteristics and the
current objective, and roll all that together into a recommended course to
maximize boat speed toward that objective. I then pass that suggestion and my
reasoning to the crew, and they make the final decision as to which way to
point the boat. That decision may vary from one day to the next. This is
because the crew’s objectives change. In the case of racers, it may change with
the tempo of the race, based on their relative position in the field, the
condition of the boat and crew, etc. They may be more—or less—inclined to
make a risky move depending on the circumstances. Delivery captains have
similar choices to make based on schedules, safety, and yacht performance. The
skipper/captain always has the final say as to the course taken. I am simply a
tool to use in making that decision.
What sort of equipment do you use?
As
a weather router, I rely on communications connections to ensure I have the
latest weather data. Having that data depends on the interaction of several
systems, and failure of any one of them could cause a loss of data. I need
computers to ingest and process the data, a reliable data line, and electrical
power to keep the computers functioning. As with any critical system,
redundancy is the key. Here is what I have in my office to help stay on track:
At OceanMet,
I have a desktop computer with dual monitors, and a laptop as a spare. I backup my system daily.
To
effectively route a boat requires a variety of weather data sources—some are
commercial vendors such as Raytheon, and some are government-sponsored or
university web sites. Whenever possible, I have identified a minimum of two
sources for the most critical data—for those times when a primary web site is
down. But no matter the source, all data are delivered via broadband ingest. As
a backup, I can activate broadband wireless through my mobile phone provider.
Electrical
power comes via the local utility. Outages are usually short-lived, and I
have a UPS as battery backup for short outages and to smooth over brownouts or
spikes that might otherwise crash computers. If the outage persists, I have a
portable generator designed for use with computers (its power output is
smoother than most regular generators). So as long as I have gasoline, I will
have power.
Minnesota
winters include bouts with snow, but since I work from my home, a serious
snowfall is not a problem.