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Whether you motor or sail, let Tactical Weather relieve the pressure.
Tactical Weather provides customized weather forecasts tailored to your individual needs. Maps show our projection of your boat position, along with the pressure and wind field. To-the-point text describes the weather, wind, and sea conditions that will affect you. Satellite pictures and satellite-derived winds can be included—it’s all up to you. Each graphic is cropped and manipulated to reduce the overall file size to the minimum, saving on communication charges (contact us for examples of our work).
Course changes are recommended to avoid bad weather, or take advantage of better weather. And we provide the necessary weather information to help solve logistical problems—whether it’s selecting a stopover port, managing equipment problems, or picking the best shopping day for your clients.
Our goal is to make your trip safer, more efficient, and more enjoyable. You have enough to do without worrying about the weather.
The following was posted on the web site for One Dream-One mission, in conjunction with Alex Bennett’s successful campaign to win Class 2 in the 2001 Transat Jacques Vabre:
How is a weather forecast created?
Tactical Weather’s team approach to weather forecasting centers around a full commitment to the crew, boat and project. Custom forecasts, created by experienced forecasters with a combined 50 years of real-world experience, are tailored specifically for Alex and his boat.
The challenge faced by all weather routers is the same: a lack of atmospheric observations reported in vast ocean regions—and limitations of weather satellites—results in gaps of information that can skew a computer model’s forecast.
When I prepare a forecast, I first cross-check the starting point of the forecast by comparing it to whatever evidence I have to help me verify the accuracy of the data. This is where the information from Alex and Paul will be critical, since it gives me an up-to-date reading of the actual conditions near the boat. If these are significantly different from what the computer model has, I must be suspicious of the model’s accuracy and adjust my forecast accordingly.
After checking the accuracy of the starting period of the forecast, I compare the previous model’s solution for the current time period. If the previous model run handled the situation well, and the current model run depicts the system accurately, I have good confidence in the subsequent hours of the model forecast. If not, I have to use my training and experience to anticipate how things may differ from the model run. Along with my forecast, I convey my relative confidence level to the crew, so they are forewarned about possible forecast errors.
In general, how much advance notice of weather patterns can you give the crew?
I feel confident in the first 72-hours of my forecasts, and fairly confident for day four and five. Confidence starts to wane beyond five days, but some general plans may be made out to 10 days. The key is to recognize when the data is suspect, and in which way it is likely to vary. I also evaluate products that simulate variations in the weather data, giving me a feel for the relative reliability of the long-range data. With that information, we can plan a course that minimizes the impact of deviations in the long-term weather.
Can't the crew get weather information from faxed weather transmissions?
Sophisticated communications systems make it possible for the crew to have a considerable amount of weather data onboard, so you might wonder why they need a weather router. I think the primary reasons are time and experience. The crew on One Dream-One Mission is only two-deep for the Transat Jacques Vabre, and properly analyzing weather data takes a lot of time—first to download the information and then to digest it. By shifting the weather load to a shore-based meteorologist, the crew saves valuable time needed to concentrate on the never-ending challenge of sailing in a world-class race. And by choosing an experienced meteorologist, the crew has someone who is able to evaluate the accuracy of the data and focus entirely on the problem of weather. The crew is quite capable of interpreting weather data, but I can do it more efficiently, in more detail and more accurately.
How do you use data from weather satellites? Aren’t there gaps in the coverage over some areas of the world?
It is true that the geostationary weather satellites (in a steady orbit over the Equator) do not handle the poles well. The instruments look at the poles from an oblique angle, causing errors in the temperature scans (registering as too warm because it samples so much intervening atmosphere) and errors in the representation of breaks in the cloud cover (it fills holes between cloud areas). But some weather satellites revolve around the Earth from pole-to-pole, so data over and near the poles are available. I use a variety of sources for satellite data, depending on the area of concern and the type of data needed. Cloud patterns suggest the strength and character of a weather system, and I use the satellite photos as an important piece of the forecast puzzle. The atmosphere is in constant fluid motion, so one of the best tools is a loop of satellite photos. The loop gives me a feel for the relationships between weather systems, their movement, and changes in strength. In some cases, I have a source that provides the loop, but sometimes I gather individual photos and place them in a graphics program to create my own loop.
Is routing software used on the boat?
A routing program is computer software that integrates weather forecast data with a boat’s performance characteristics and produces a preferred course to sail. Over the past few years, the number of routing programs has blossomed and their quality has improved. Alex will have routing software by Euronav onboard, and I will be referring to routing software as part of my routine. But I check the routing software option only after I have produced my own forecast and course selection—as another tool to check my work and ensure that I have not missed something—whereas I think many crewmembers will download the weather file and immediately activate the routing module to see what it suggests. And I think that is just fine, since they don’t have the time to spend pouring over endless weather data—with half a dozen programs open—to generate a weather forecast!
How do you transmit your information to the boat?
Reliable communications to and from the boat is an absolutely critical link, since I must know where they are and where they are going to properly perform my duties. When One Dream-One Mission is at sea during the Transat Jacques Vabre, I’ll communicate with Alex and Paul through satellite-based systems so sophisticated that from my end it will be no different than sending an e-mail or fax, or picking up the phone to call directly to the boat. I also rely on data from the boat (such as course heading; boat speed; wind direction and wind speed) to help me evaluate the accuracy of computer-based weather models and to track the progress of weather systems. For instance, if the wind is from a direction that differs from what I expected, that may give me a clue as to whether the weather system is strengthening or weakening, or moving faster or slower than I expected.
Do you control the course of the boat?
My primary objective is to keep the crew safe and the boat fast. I evaluate meteorological data from many sources (multiple computer models; ship and buoy reports; satellite-based wind estimates; satellite cloud analyses; wave height forecasts, etc.), then consider the boat’s performance characteristics and the current objective, and roll all that together into a recommended course to maximize boat speed toward that objective. I then pass that suggestion and my reasoning to the crew, and they make the final decision as to which way to point the boat. That decision may vary from one part of the race to another, even given the same weather scenario. This is because the crew’s objectives change with the tempo of the race, based on their relative position in the field, the condition of the boat and crew, etc. They may be more—or less—inclined to make a risky move depending on the circumstances. The skipper always has the final say as to the course sailed. I am simply a tool for the skipper to use in making that decision.
Don’t most of the boats in a race follow the same course?
It is true that many race results turn on subtle differences in course, but sometimes boats take divergent paths. A good example of how routing choices can make a significant difference is the 2000 Transat Quebec-St Malo race, where the two lead boats entered the Atlantic south of Newfoundland with only a small distance between them. One boat chose a northeasterly route and the other a southeasterly route. Within about 24-hours, the southern-most boat was nearly 300 miles ahead!
What sort of equipment do you use?
As a weather router, I rely on communications connections to ensure I have the latest weather data. Having that data depends on the interaction of several systems, and failure of any one of them could cause a loss of data. I need computers to ingest and process the data, a reliable data line, and electrical power to keep the computers functioning. As with any critical system, redundancy is the key. Here is what I have in my New Hampshire USA office to help ensure Alex stays on track:
At Tactical Weather, the office local area network consists of a server and two primary workstations. Two other computers can be used as backup workstations, and any of the four workstations can function independently if my network goes down. The server also has a redundant hard drive that can be put into service if the primary hard drive fails. I maintain a tape backup of the server and have CD-ROM backups of critical files. Less than 24 hours into the 2001 Transat Jacques Vabre (at 0300 on a Sunday), my primary workstation crashed hard—it wouldn’t even boot! The problem came out of the blue, since the system had been working flawlessly for months. I immediately fired up workstation number two and prepared to function from it, then set about trying to bring the first workstation back to life. After an hour, the computer was back to normal, but the main point is that I never lost the ability to help Alex and Paul.
To effectively route Alex requires a variety of weather data sources—some are commercial vendors such as Raytheon and MaxSea, and some are government-sponsored or university web sites. Whenever possible, I have identified a minimum of two sources for the most critical data, for those times when a primary web site is down. But no matter the source, all the data is delivered via an Internet connection. I live in a small town, but I do have broadband ingest. My backup is a 56k modem on the phone lines (although the workstations normally get the link via the server, each workstation has its own modem as a backup). The 56K dial-up is through a separate ISP than the one providing my broadband, in case one of the ISPs has a major outage. The data link is probably the most vulnerable in that the phone lines are strung on poles and therefore could fall prey to high winds or a major snow or ice storm. But in practice, our phone line is up nearly 100% of the time, so the risk is manageable.
Electrical power comes via the town’s municipal electric “company.” Although quite reliable, there are times when it goes out—even when the weather is good. Outages are usually short-lived, and I have three uninterruptible power supplies as battery backup for short outages, and to smooth over brownouts or spikes that might otherwise crash computers. If the outage persists, I have a portable generator designed for use with computers (its power output is smoother than most regular generators). So as long as I have gasoline, I will have power.
New England winters include bouts with snow, so I have a 4-wheel drive vehicle to help me reach the office. If that fails, I can walk the 1.5 miles. If I can’t get the house door open because of the snow, I can use my laptop from home. And if all of this still can’t get me in touch with my weather information, the crew will have data onboard that can get them through the crisis.
All this may smack of paranoia, but the crew trusts me to keep them safe, and I can’t forecast the Atlantic Ocean weather by gazing out my New Hampshire window.